Analysis and forecast of domestic medium truck development in first quarter of 2010 (I)

I  Analysis of sales circumstances of van in first quarter of 2010
It is disclosed by China Auto Society that the sales volume of van（chassis and semi-trailer included）is 991,724 in first quarter of 2010, which has increased 60.38% by same time last year. However, the sales volume increase of medium truck is the slowest in van market, and market share has been reduced 2.09% rapidly (see figure1).

                                                                 Figure 1: Domestic van segment market sales condition in first quarter of 2010

Items	accumulated sales of this month	increase by %	market share %	market share increase %	accumulated sales in same period
Van (chassis and semi-tractor included) ) Total	991724	60.38	100.00	0.00	618345
（I）heavy truck (chassis and semi-tractor included) )	267550	162.15	26.98	10.47	102058
（II）medium truck (chassis included)	71879	24.46	7.25	-2.09	57754
（III）light truck(chassis included)	499725	45.25	50.39	-5.25	344035
（IV）mini truck(chassis included)	152570	33.25	15.38	-3.13	114498

From segment market of medium truck, accumulated sales volume increase of medium truck CV and chassis are respectively 25.51% and 34.31% lower than the increase speed of market.

                                                               Figure 2 CV and chassis sales volume (semi-trailer is not included) in first quarter of 2010

	Accumulated sales volume	increased by same time last year	market share	market share increase		segment market	Accumulated sales volume	increased by same time last year	market share	market share increase
Total	714297	42.40	100.00	0.00		Total	180054	77.81	100.00	0.00
heavy truck	57601	82.25	8.06	1.76		chassis of heavy truck	112576	104.73	62.52	8.22
medium truck	48313	16.89	6.76	-1.48		chassis of medium truck	23566	43.50	13.09	-3.13
light truck	465891	44.23	65.22	0.83		chassis of light truck	33834	61.06	18.79	-1.95
mini truck	142492	34.87	19.95	-1.11		chassis of mini truck	10078	13.94	5.6	-3.14

II  Competition status of medium truck in first quarter of 2010
1 Competition status in first quarter
Domestic medium truck market has been growing rapidly in January. Dongfeng Auto company ranks the first against 5399 sales volume and 298.45% increase rate. Sichuan Nanjun is second with sales volume 2000 less than Dongfeng. The following enterprises are FAW, JAC, Qingling, Shandong Kaima, and Chongqing Lifan.

Sales volume in February is less than that of January. Dongfeng Auto with 5624 sales volume is still ranking first, JAC, FAW, Sichuan Nanjun,Chengdu Wang Pai, and Chongqing Li Fan are the following six enterprises.

March is the first sales peak month of 2010. Dongfeng is occupying first place with 10858 sales volume and 31.6% increase rate. FAW is the second with 5000 less volumes than Dongfeng. The ranking is Dongfeng, FAW, JAC, Sichuan Nanjun, Chengdu Wangpai, Qingling, and Chengdu Xindadi, and etc.

2 Analysis of competition status of medium truck market in first quarter of 2010
Competition status of medium truck market in first quarter of 2010 have been changed rapidly because of new beneficiary policy and promotion activity as well as new products of the enterprises(see figure 3).

The statistics show that Dongfeng and FAW have taken 43.97% market share in first quarter of 2010 and it has increased 4.98%^by same time last year.

JAC, Qingling Auto and Shandong Tangjun have risen rapidly. The total sales volume of the three enterprises in first quarter is 14286, and has increased 119.01% by same time last year. Market share is 19.88% and has raised 8.58%.

It is showed by the statistics that Sichuan Nanjun, Chengdu Wangpai, Qingling Auto, Chongqing Lifan, Chengdu Xindadi, and Chengdu Dayun Group have realized sales volume 21885, and have increased -1.05%, 25.51% lower than the average level. 

                                                                    Figure 3 Competition status of medium truck market in first quarter of 2010

Enterprises	Accumulated amount end of current period	Increase by same time	Market share	Market share increase	Accumulated amount end of same period
Medium truck (chassis included)	71879	24.46	100.00	0.00	57754
Dongfeng Auto Company	21881	54.51	30.44	5.92	14162
FAW	9724	16.40	13.53	-0.94	8354
JAC	7958	78.55	11.07	3.35	4457
Sichuan Nanjun	7829	41.60	10.89	1.32	5529
Chengdu Wangpai	4899	-42.60	6.82	-7.96	8535
Qingling Auto	4186	136.9	5.82	2.76	1767
Chongqing Lifan	3072	21.33	4.27	-0.11	2532
Shandong Kaima	2576	68.15	3.58	0.93	1532
Zhejiang Feidie	2365	23.24	3.29	-0.03	1919
Shandong Tangjun Ouling	2142	616.39	2.98	2.46	299
Chengdu Xindadi	1698	-30.04	2.36	-1.84	2427
Hubei Sanhuan	1060	-55.39	1.47	-2.64	2376